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The Swiss economy is bouncing back
to buoyancy. Various indicators
point to this development. The brisk
performance of the manufacturing
sector, a surge in exports have
indicated that 2006 will turn out
to be a very good year for the Swiss
economy. A survey of the Swiss corporate
sector performance by UBS, the country's
leading bank shows that industrial
activity picked up sharply in the
first quarter of 2006 and is set
to continue unabated in the second
quarter of the year.
Switzerland's
leading banks have revised upwards
their predictions for the country's
annual gross domestic product (GDP),
reckoning on healthy economic growth.
UBS has recently raised its growth
forecast from 2.3 to 3.0 per cent
soon after Credit Suisse hiked its
GDP prediction from 2.1 to 2.8 per
cent.
The International Monetary Fund
(IMF) has also said that "the
Swiss economy is showing some spark"
and forecast growth in 2006 of more
than 2.0 per cent.
UBS said a "surprisingly"
strong first quarter boded well.
"It is promising that economic
activity is not only robust but
also broadly based. Most economic
indicators suggest that the prospects
for the current year remain good."
Switzerland's largest bank predicted
growth would slow down to 1.4 per
cent in 2007, up from the 1.3 per
cent previously forecast. Credit
Suisse has also revised its forecast
as a result of the unexpectedly
strong growth at the start of the
year.
The bank said the average unemployment
rate would drop from 3.8 per cent
last year to 3.2 per cent this year
and to three per cent in 2007. The
IMF said in its annual report that
"unemployment has started to
recede and despite rising oil prices,
inflation remains under control
and the current account is running
a large surplus". Consumer
price inflation is just over 1.0
per cent.
The IMF statement said the recovery
presented the Swiss with an opportunity
to advance reforms to further boost
growth. It added that short-term
economic risks facing Switzerland
appeared generally contained, and
it credited the government with
being "on track to eliminate
its small structural deficit by
2007".
The IMF praised the Swiss authorities
for their "prudent macroeconomic
management, sound monetary and fiscal
policy frameworks, and flexible
labour markets". But the Washington-based
institution warned that continued
growth in the medium-term would
only be possible if the country
"addressed the fiscal pressures
from an ageing population".
It also called on the government
to liberalize further "sheltered
sectors, including reducing red
tape and state regulations, lowering
non-tariff barriers to trade, and
reducing the very high levels of
protection and subsidization in
the agricultural sector". |