Canada's economy is still stuck in recession, an international economic organization declared recently in a forecast that runs counter to the Bank of Canada and most private-sector analysts.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, said Canada's economy will shrink at an annualized rate of 2 percent from July to September.

That's in sharp contrast to statements from the central bank, which forecast in July that the economy will grow 1.3 percent in the current quarter. Since then, many private-sector economists have estimated that annualized growth could come in at an even stronger 2 percent.

The OECD report is an interim snapshot, not the official semi-annual forecast for which the high-profile agency is known. It used gross domestic product, or GDP, reports from the first half of the year to make projections on global growth.

That's where the problem lies, one Canadian economist said in an interview. This recession has been very severe. It set in quickly and, as a result, certain economic indicators, such as industrial production and jobs figures, declined very suddenly, said Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "If you were to extrapolate from that, it would look bad."

There is very strong economic data not included in the latest OECD forecast. For example, Chrysler Canada shut down auto production in May but resumed manufacturing in July. Chrysler's minivan plant in Windsor has recently ramped up production to keep up with demand, spurred by the popular cash-for-clunkers program in the U.S.

As well, existing home sales have risen for six consecutive months. "That's a sign that consumers are buying big-ticket items and banks are lending money to consumers to buy big-ticket items. That's the stuff of economic growth," Gregory said.

Statistics Canada said last week that Canada's GDP edged up into positive territory in June, and growth is expected to strengthen through the rest of the year. "In this case, the methodology did (the OECD) a bit of a disservice," Gregory said. "You have to kick the tires, smell the air, see what's going on."

Overall, the world economy is headed for an earlier recovery than previously forecast, although the pace of the rebound will likely remain modest for some time to come, the OECD said.

Presenting the report in Paris, the OECD's top economist, Jorgen Elmeskov, cited improving financial conditions, a rebound in trade, and industries that will use up their existing inventory as factors pointing to faster economic recovery in the OECD's 30 member countries.

However, the recovery remains fragile, Elmeskov said. "Recovery looks to be at hand for the OECD economy at large, but it's important not to get carried away," he said. "The green shoots need careful nurturing by policy, if they are to become strong, sustainable plants."

The OECD said Canada's economy will grow by 0.4 percent in the last three months of the year, putting it ahead of the U.K. and on par with Italy, but well behind Germany, France and the U.S. Only Japan's economy is expected to continue shrinking in the final quarter of this year, at a rate of 0.9 percent.