Coping with A Calamity: Is India Ready? India is vulnerable to various natural disasters like floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, forest fires and the like. Losses caused by disasters continue to mount year after year. The need for an effective disaster management strategy to lessen disaster impact was increasingly being felt in many quarters and also for strengthening of organizational structure of disaster management. To achieve these objectives, a High Powered Committee (HPC) on Disaster Management was constituted with the approval of the Prime Minister. The Committee submitted its report in October 2001. The Terms of Reference of the HPC was to review existing arrangements for preparedness and mitigation of natural and man-made disasters including industrial, nuclear, biological and chemical disasters, recommend measures for strengthening organizational structure; and recommend a comprehensive model plan for management of these disasters at the National, State and District levels. WORKING GROUP ON DISASTER MANAGEMENT After the devastating earthquake in Gujarat, the National Committee on Disaster Management (NCDM) was constituted under the Chairmanship of the Prime Minister with a mandate, which included suggestion of suitable legislation and institutional measures to deal with calamities in future. It was envisaged that the Committee should have the services of a working group, which would provide various inputs including background material and suitable analyses to enable the Committee to formulate suitable recommendations in the matter. On the recommendation of the Vice Chairman, NCDM-PM, and approval of the Prime Minister, the HPC was subsequently converted to the Working Group on Disaster Management. The Working Group prepared an Agenda note, highlighting some major issues in disaster management and identifying some important institutional, financial and legislative measures. The National Disaster Management Policy, clearly states that, "Upgradation of advance warning systems must take place in tandem with building up the community's own capacities…” It goes on to elaborate further, “…Development of an Early Warning System that will be disseminated to all related organizations, administrative mechanism at all levels and the community is imperative.” The National Policy also stressed the need for the preparation of detailed maps because easy availability of precise maps of appropriate areas enhances greatly the preparedness measures for future disasters. It is to be noted that the Working Group covered certain areas that were not in the mandate of the HPC. The High Powered Committee and the Working Group together lay down the foundation of the status of disaster management in the country along with the roadmap for the future with strategically laid milestones. CURRENT PRACTICES The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is responsible for providing tropical cyclone warnings in India. The tropical cyclone warning service is one of the most important functions of the IMD and it was the first service undertaken by the Department, which is now 125 years old. In fact, the cyclone warning system started in India (which included at that time other countries of the sub-continent), as early as 1865 but was not supported by adequate meteorological observations and analysis capabilities at that time. With time the cyclone warning services of IMD has continuously been updated and today, it is one among the modern cyclone warning services in the world. The broad requirements of an efficient warning system are: (i) Accurate and detailed forecasts of dangerous conditions in sufficient time in advance, (ii) Rapid and dependable distribution system for the forecast advisories and warnings to all interested parties, and (iii) Prompt and efficient utilization of warning by the government and public. To get a good forecast it is necessary to have, (a) Adequate data of proper type, (b) Forecasters with sufficient ability, training, experience and time to prepare suitable forecast, and (c) Good techniques for preparing accurate forecast of the storm's movement change in intensity and storm tides. The communication system for distribution of the advisories and warnings should be one that can dependably deliver the advisory information to all concerned in a short time even in cyclone condition like strong wind, heavy rain floods, etc. Data are required to define the initial conditions and to form a basis for making forecast of the future conditions. Accurate forecasts are necessary for issuing effective warnings. For the initial conditions knowledge, is required regarding the location of the center and intensity of the cyclone and extent and distribution of the dangerous conditions of the cyclone. For forecasting the future movement information is required regarding the past movement of the storm, distribution of wind throughout the troposphere and predicted synoptic situation in and around the cyclone center. IMD's cyclone tracking system is an integrated system consisting of about 560 observatories for taking meteorological data from the earth's surface, 100 observatories making measurements of wind in the upper atmosphere up to altitudes of 20 to 25 km, 35 observations for making measurements of temperature and humidity up to an altitude of 225 Km, ships observations, 10 cyclone detection radars along the coasts and Geo-Stationary INSAT satellites. Information concerning tropical cyclones and warnings is included in the cyclone advisory/cyclone warning bulletins. When the cyclone is close to the coast, the advisories are issued at more frequent intervals. Various types of advisories are listed as below: • Bulletins for the high seas • Coastal bulletins • Tropical Cyclone Bulletins to All India Radio (AIR) for broadcast. • Port Warnings • Fisheries Warnings Apart from cyclones, floods and droughts are the calamities that effectively use early warning systems as a part of disaster response. In India, flood forecasting in inter-state rivers is the responsibility of Central Water Commission (CWC). The India Meteorological Department (IMD) provides inputs in the form of heavy rainfall analysis and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts. While preparing flood forecast and warnings, the Central Water Commission takes into account these inputs of IMD. Central Water Commission commenced flood forecasting and flood warning system in a scientific way in the year 1958. At present the flood forecasting and warning network of CWC covers 62 major interstate river sub catchments which include 132 water level forecasting stations and 25 inflow forecasting stations for important reservoirs. Hydrological and hydro metrological data from nearly 700 stations in these rivers are being collected; analysed and flood forecasts and warning messages are issued, generally 24 hours to 48 hours in advance. In case of very large incoming floods, advisory forecasts are also issued 72 hours in advance or more which predicts the incoming floods at the downstream locations. Existing flood forecasting and warning system of CWC caters to major flood prone areas and river floods. There is a need to take care of the basins served by smaller rivers, the remote areas and the mountainous communities. Here local vigilance and timely action through a system of community volunteers may be helpful. Volunteers need to be identified from the villages in frequently flood affected areas of hilly regions and train them. The organized flood forecasting and warning system operated by CWC needs to be expanded from its existing network of 157 stations. Simultaneously, droughts, tornadoes, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are also predictable. Since droughts develop slowly and gradually over a longer period of time, the concept of short range forecasts/warnings (which are valid for 2 to 3 days) are of no relevance in the case of drought management. In India, as well as many places in the globe, drought as such is generally not predicted; but long-range forecasts of rainfall in different time scales like, weekly, monthly and seasonal scale are issued. India is the pioneer in issuing such forecasts. It started in 1885 and continues till today. The forecasts are made by using statistical techniques and issued towards the end of May every year, prior to the beginning of the season. Heavy rainfall is caused mostly during the monsoon seasons in association with some identified meteorological conditions like monsoon depressions and lows and cyclonic storms. Early warnings help in taking precautionary measures against widespread heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall warnings are issued by IMD from its Regional Offices as well as State Meteorological centers every day to the news media as well as addressed messages to many users. These are broadcast by AIR in their mid-day bulletin as well as under Farmers' Weather Bulletin. Efforts are needed for the area specific heavy rainfall forecast with reasonable accuracy in medium range scale (beyond 2-3 days). Thunderstorms are short duration transient weather phenomena. They can cause very severe damage to life and property locally due to associated strong winds, heavy rain, hailstorm, and lightening. Like heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm warnings are issued from IMD and broadcast through AIR. Most of the newspapers also carry such warnings in their weather column. It is not possible to pin point exactly when and where a thunderstorm will occur, therefore for thunderstorm warnings broad areas are identified where a thunderstorm could occur. NEW POLICY OF THE GOVERNMENT The world has seen an increased awareness in the areas of disaster management. So much so, in1989, the General Assembly of the United Nations proclaimed the decade 1990-2000 as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Working closely within the IDNDR's framework, the Govt. of India, in 1993-94, implemented a central sector plan Scheme on Natural disaster management whose main focus was on capacity building and human resource development. As a part of this programme, National Centre for Disaster Management (NCDM) was set up at national level while at state level disaster management cells were also established in ATIs. NCDM is being considered as a nodal center for human resource development in the country. In this changing scenario, there is an urgent need for establishment of a separate Institute at national level for Human Resource Development in the field of disaster management. The High Powered Committee on Disaster Management has also recommended for establishing a separate institute at national level, which will be regarded as Center for excellence in Human Resource Development. The National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) is envisioned to meet the multi-pronged need for research, training, education and institutional co-operation. The main focus of the Institute will be on disaster preparedness and mitigation through a coordinated efficient response system. As there is no such institute existing in the South Asian region, the importance of NIDM assumes significance, which would also serve as a nodal Regional Center for research, consultancy and training in the field of disaster management and mitigation. NIDM is envisioned as a self-sustaining and self-contained institute with a multidisciplinary and multi-hazard approach to training and research in disaster management. It will assist the National and State Governments in building their capacities and also in planning for disaster preparedness and mitigation. The NlDM will have linkages with governments at central, state, district and local levels, international aid and development Agencies, Bilateral and multilateral agencies, Research/academic Institutions, Corporate sector, NGOs, Community based organizations, community etc. The NIDM has been envisaged to house an alternate Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) as well, which can take over the functions of the National EOC in cases of emergency. The alternate EOC will also be used for simulation and hands on training purposes. An advisory committee will guide the overall functioning of NIDM, which will be represented by Govt. of India, NGOs, and Technical/Academic Institutions etc. India is embarking on a process of increased activity in the disaster management sector from all the levels of the government. Certain developments like the shift of the NDM Division from Ministry of Agriculture to the Ministry of Home Affairs (which is headed by the Deputy Prime Minister) has helped the efforts being taken on this front and further expedited the process. Reshuffling is being done in administrative structure of disaster management in the country. The Ministry of Home Affairs is designated as nodal Agency to handle all types of disasters. The High Powered Committee also focused on the need of ushering in new cultures for the holistic development of the country. In totality, these focussed on the involvement of Panchayati Raj Institutions, Urban Local Bodies and the NGO's for a complete, coordinated effort. These are, • Culture of Preparedness • Culture of Quick Response • Culture of Strategic Thinking • Culture of Prevention • Culture of Preparedness • Preparedness Planning based Initiatives • Preparedness Plans at all levels • Plan Updation Week recommended in the last week of April every year. • Plan Rehearsal Week in the first week of May. Participation of all concerned in this national exercise, especially the NGOs and community based organisations. Union Secretary (Agriculture & Cooperation) has already requested the State Governments to start this exercise. Culture of Quick Response: The Trigger Mechanism concept used as an “emergency quick response mechanism” which, when activated prior to or during a disaster event simultaneously sets into motion the required prevention and mitigation measures with minimum loss of time. Operation of Trigger Mechanism requires clear delineation of duties & functions including identification of key personnel. Adequate delegation to act in the first critical 24-48 hours without loss of time in planning or seeking clearance/approval/direction from superiors. Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) are required to be evolved in meticulous detail for effective operation of the Trigger Mechanism. Culture of Strategic Thinking: Knowledge Network and Learning Exercise Networking of Knowledge-based institutions and learning exercise should be encouraged for integration of: • Traditional and local knowledge . • Advanced scientific & technological information. • The concept of Knowledge Network has been evolved in three parts and nodal institutions are identified as under: Disaster Nodal Organisation 1. Natural Disasters - CRRI, New Delhi 2. Manmade Disasters - IICT, Hyderabad 3. Biological Disasters - ICMR, New Delhi Culture of Prevention: • Disaster Prevention through Environmentally Sensitive Development Practices. • Development that will protect from calamity, not become calamity itself. • Sound understanding of Hazards, Vulnerability, Risks and Disasters. Apart from this, BMTPC has recently done a wonderful task of preparing a national hazard zonation map compendium known as the Vulnerability Atlas. This atlas gives in detail the susceptibility of India. It also demarcates the areas, which are prone to various natural hazards along with the grading of expected severity. This atlas has helped in reinforcing the ongoing efforts of disaster management in the country. Subsequently, many states have formulated their own disaster management policies which focus on the need of incorporating efficient communication and early warning systems in tackling disasters. These states include Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Orrisa. The Gujarat State Disaster Management policy states, “Early Warning Mechanisms help the relevant authorities in taking timely preventive measures and thereby reduce the damage caused by disasters. Wherever possible, the relevant authorities, in conjunction with Government departments, shall set up early warning mechanisms to give an advance warning for hazards like cyclones, floods etc. this shall include the setting up of Regional Response Centers, if necessary, for providing key early warning information and preparing for a response, in the event of occurrence of disaster. GSDMA shall ensure that these mechanisms are aligned with the overall disaster management plan for the state.” It may be observed that advancement in Information Technology in the form of Internet, GIS, Remote Sensing, Satellite communication, etc. can help a great deal in planning and implementation of hazards reduction. For maximum benefit, new technologies for public communication should be made use and natural disaster mitigation messages should be conveyed through these measures. GIS can improve the quality and power of analysis of natural hazards assessments, guide development activities and assist planners in the selection of mitigation measures and in the implementation of emergency preparedness and response action. Remote Sensing, on the other hand, as a tool can very effectively contribute towards identification of hazardous areas, monitor the planet for its changes on a real time basis and give early warning to many impending disasters. Communication satellites have become vital for providing emergency communication and timely relief measures. Integration of space technology inputs into natural disaster monitoring and mitigation mechanisms is critical for hazard reduction. It is absolutely necessary to create awareness amongst the public as well as decision makers for allocating resources for appropriate investments in information technology. Awareness and training in Information technology in a much greater measure is required to develop human resources, particularly in the developing countries, who chronically suffer from natural disasters. The disasters usually occur in the well-defined areas, even though the community does not know the coping mechanism for the disaster. The disaster mitigation programmes must be extensively up covering various aspects at national level to minimise the disaster damages. There should be a greater emphasis on development of new technologies in disaster mitigation. The disaster preparedness and awareness is the only effective way of mitigating the impact of future disasters. - Anil Sinha