Disaster Risk Reduction:
A World Perspective - Anil Sinha

The whole world is affected by natural hazards of varying intensities. Loss of life and property due to natural disasters like tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions etc. is immense. Fortunately, for some of the greatest natural disasters like tropical cyclones, early warning services are available today and by proper long and short-term mitigative measures, loss of lives and property can be minimised. One of the important components of short-term disaster mitigation measure is the early warning of the phenomena causing disasters.
The importance of early warning systems is recognized all over the world. In 1989, the member states of the United Nations (UN) declared the period from 1990 to the year 2000 to be the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). Its objective is to "reduce the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption caused by natural disasters, through concerted international action, especially in developing countries".
The fundamental importance of early warning for realizing this objective of disaster reduction was recognized in 1991. The IDNDR's Scientific and Technical Committee declared the subject a programme target, by which the success of the Decade would be judged by the year 2000. By drawing on global scientific knowledge and practical experience, the Decade's advisory committee encouraged all countries to ensure the ready access to global, regional, national and local warning systems as part of their national development plans. The critical nature of early warning for the protection of vital resources and for addressing national development objectives was highlighted by a technical committee session devoted to the subject at the World Conference on Natural Disaster Reduction held in Yokohama, Japan in May 1994. Several of the expert presentations cited the importance of public policy commitment for successful early warning. The primary outcome of the Conference, the Yokohama Strategy for a Safer World: Guidelines for Natural Disaster Prevention, Preparedness and Mitigation further emphasized the importance of applied scientific knowledge and the public's awareness of hazard risks as essential components for more effective early warning practices.
The International IDNDR Conference on Early Warning Systems for the reduction of natural disasters was held at the GeoForschungsZentrum in Potsdam, Germany from 7-11 September 1998. The meeting brought together 370 scientists, public officials, and representatives of the United Nations system, non-governmental and international organizations and diverse professional, commercial, and civic individuals from 86 countries. The Potsdam Early Warning Conference represented the first major thematic component of IDNDR's concluding evaluation and provided recommendations to ensure disaster reduction into the 21st Century. It identified major strengths and weaknesses in early warning capacities around the world. Participants repeatedly emphasized the multidisciplinary and multi-sectoral character of the early warning process. Although based on scientific and technology, early warning must be tailored to serve people's needs, their environments, and their resources.

What Are Early Warning Systems?
The manifold vulnerability of India and its scathing impact on the society has left a lot to be desired about the approach of the country towards the concept and practice of disaster management. During the last couple of years, disasters have increased both in magnitude and severity, thus heightening the need for pro-active measures in the country which would work towards knowledge dissemination, capacity building and public awareness, both at National as well as regional level. In an effort towards disaster reduction and a step towards disaster mitigation, the capacity building of vulnerable communities and other role players at all levels gains significant importance and needs to be incorporated into the development policies and programmes initiated by the government. In this light, the role of effective early warning systems cannot be neglected. Early warning systems can be interpreted narrowly as technological instruments for detecting and forecasting impending hazard events and for issuing alerts. This interpretation, however, does not clarify whether warning information is used at the national and local levels to reduce risks. In order to fulfill a risk reduction function, warnings of impending hazards need to be complemented by information on the risks actually posed by the hazards and likely strategies to mitigate the loss and damage, which could arise. This added value of warning information needs to be communicated to vulnerable groups in a way that facilitates their own decisions and abilities to take timely actions.



In order to transform hazard warning information into effective risk reduction at the national and local level, early warning systems must be made up of a number of integrated sub-systems:
• A warning sub-system, in which hazards are monitored and forecasted, at the international, national and local levels. In these, scientific information about impending hazards is produced and communicated to national authorities responsible for disaster management.
• A risk information sub-system, which can enable disaster management authorities to generate risk scenarios. These should indicate the potential impact of an impending hazard event on specific vulnerable groups and sectors of the society.
• A preparedness sub-system, in which disaster preparedness strategies are developed that indicate actions required to reduce the loss and damage expected from an impending hazard event.
• A communication sub-system, which allows the communication of timely information on impending hazard events, potential risk scenarios and preparedness strategies to vulnerable groups, so that they may take appropriate mitigation measures.
As such, an early warning system is much more than a scientific and technical instrument for forecasting hazards and issuing alerts. It should be understood as an information system designed to facilitate decision-making, in the context of national disaster management agencies, in a way that empowers vulnerable sectors and social groups to mitigate the potential losses and damages from impending hazard events. Those people who are most immediately at risk should judge the usefulness of an early warning system, less on whether warnings are issued per se, but rather on the basis of whether the warnings facilitate appropriate and timely decision-making.
It has to be realized that Weather Systems do not recognize any International boundary and move freely from place to place affecting several countries/regions simultaneously or one after the other. Therefore, to prepare Weather Forecasts and Warnings for different time periods the meteorological data and information are required not only from the country where forecast is made but also from other countries. Longer the forecast projection, greater is the data requirement, and for the preparation of forecasts valid for 3 to 5 days, data is required from the entire globe. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized agency of the United Nations, co-ordinates all the activities related to Meteorology globally with it's headquarters at Geneva, Switzerland. The broader objective or mission of an integrated national warning service is:
“To promote effective community response, to avoid potential disaster, and thereby to reduce the loss of life, property and environmental damage, and the community disruption to a realistic minimum.”
(WMO Report No. TCP-31)